New site by Jewish Voices for Peace to give the lie to notion that Israel is a Western-style democracy.
Norman Finkelstein.
Blake Hounshell of Foreign Policy, on my ElBaradei piece and more.
Facebook groups for Mubarak can’t muster more than a few hundred.
Tomorrow’s the big day: the second coming of Mohamed ElBaradei to Egypt. Although some in the opposition would rather he part the Red Sea and walk across, he’s flying in to Cairo airport.
I guess my previous blog posts on the Mohamed ElBaradei phenomenon have made clear that while I have no doubts the man has more qualifications to run Egypt than Gamal Mubarak does (a lot of senior diplomats and scholars could), I fail to see how, structurally and under the Constitution that only Husni Mubarak and the ruling National Democratic Party can amend, he can even stand as a candidate, let alone win. Perhaps there is going to be a huge spontaneous excitement once he gets off the plane, but remember, the man hasn’t lived in Egypt in ages; he probably knows his way around Vienna better than parts of Cairo. And the regime still gets to shuffle and deal the cards.
On the other hand, I suppose there is a lot of excitement among the opposition, since for the first time there seems to be a possible figure that many could see as a legitimate President who neither wears a uniform nor is named Mubarak. And for all Egypt’s flaws, he’s not going to have to worry about the kind of welcome Benigno Aquino got on returning to the Philippines, where he never made it off the tarmac alive. If the government wants to neutralize ElBaradei, it will find some scandal to tar him with or simply make organizing impossible.
Al-Masry al-Youm’s English website has an analysis piece by Ashraf Khalil that includes the following:
Decades from now, 19 February, 2010 may just be looked back upon as B-Day. Mothers will tell their children of the blessed day when Mohamed ElBaradei returned, like a conquering hero, to personally reshape Egypt into a functioning democracy.
Or maybe not.
All possibilities seem to be in play as ElBaradei returns to Egypt this Friday amid an atmosphere bordering in some circles on the hysterical. Rumors have percolated for days about a mass welcoming committee being planned for the former International Atomic Energy Association chief when he arrives at Cairo International Airport Friday afternoon.
“We’re all going. Everybody is going,” said George Ishak, one of the founders of the Kefaya pro-democracy movement, who has been one of ElBaradei’s most high-profile advocates ever since the longtime expatriate first floated the idea last year of running for president in the 2011 elections. “I don’t want to make any predictions on numbers, but it’s going to be big,” Ishak added.
As the anticipation grows, the most pressing questions have become: How many people will attempt to greet ElBaradei at the airport? And what will Egyptian security forces do about it? After all, a gathering of people happy to see ElBaradei back in Egypt could easily be construed as an anti-government protest rally.
“If the government uses force, it will backfire,” said Cairo University political science professor Hassan Nafaa, who issued an open call earlier this week in Al-Masry Al-Youm for a massive airport turnout. “I don’t know how the government will react. But they certainly won’t be very happy to see a warm welcome from the Egyptian public.”
Bear in mind that ElBaradei keeps reiterating that he doesn’t want to be President (and then expressing his conditions for accepting). He (or his supporters) also have a slick campaign weebsite. I also wonder if the various opposition groups talking about him aren’t enthusiastic about their own imagined ElBaradeis, rather than the real flesh-and-blood man. Some people — Ruhollah Khomeini was the classic regional case — can play various factions by letting each think that he represents them when he really represents his own interest, but is ElBaradei such a man? (The original suggestion of ElBaradei came from the youth wing of the Wafd Party. The Wafd and Kefaya founder George Ishak, quoted above, are poles apart in all but their anybody-but-Gamal positions.)
Well, at least it will be something a bit different to watch. I hope I’m being too cynical here, but I rather doubt that I am.
As part of the 50th Anniversary of the Aswan High Dam the Egyptian media has been writing a lot about the period. Here’s an interesting interview in Al-Masry Al-Youm’s English pages with a Nubian displaced by the High Dam, remembering the lost villages of Nubia and showing distinctly mixed views of Nasser.
Sameh Sawiris in talks to partner on purchase of Independent newspaper.
Extracts from the book Françalgerie, on the recently deceased mafiosi-general.
By Rachid Khechana [PDF]
Someone punch him again, please.
Active duty CIA agents working for hedge funds. No wonder Bin Laden hasn’t been caught and the economy is in a shambles.
Heavy construction activity in last two days.
This shores up the Egyptian claim that weapons are delivered to Gaza by sea rather (or on top of) the tunnels.
WTF?
A pinch and a punch for the first of the month:
? Arabic and the Roman alphabet | Brian Whitaker chimes on the Arabic transliteration debate.
? Sunday Afternoon Thoughts: Arabic transliteration « The Moor Next Door | Bottom line, let’s not get too anal about it, but be consistent. I agree.
? Coptic orgs call for voting against Mubarak in next election | Bikya Masr | Free Copts and American Coptic Assembly goes against the Pope!
? Dubai police say Mossad may have killed Hamas chief – Yahoo! News | So let’s not hear complaints when there’s retribution.
? Egypt could face sanctions over sectarianism | Al-Masry Al-Youm: Today’s News from Egypt | Chairman of US Commission on Int. Religious Freedom said Egypt’s could be cut over discrimination.
? Al-Ahram Weekly | Opinion | When the alternative is not so different after all | al-Anani on the MB’s murky politics.
? Mahmoud Abbas: Israel’s West Bank occupation leading to one-state solution | World news | The Guardian | Interview with Abu Mazen, still trying to scare the Israelis with talk of one-state solution they perfectly know he’s not serious about.
? Le jour où l’Egypte a frôlé la catastrophe : foot, télévision et conflits asymétriques | Culture et politique arabes | A very nice post on the politics of Al-Jazeera’s purchase of the Orbit sports channel.
? Michael Totten: Muslim Arabs hate everybody « the human province | Why do Totten and Smith hate us?
? gulfnews : UAE editors back emiratisation of media | Goodbye expat journos? Not likely soon…
? Panetta traveled to Israel – Laura Rozen – POLITICO.com | And also to Egypt to meet with Omar Suleiman last week.
? In Egypt, Religious Clashes Are Off the Record – NYTimes.com | Slackman reports from Naga Hammadi.
? Repopulating an antique land: Egypt’s forbidding Western Desert – The National Newspaper | A look at the New Valley project by Jack Shenker.
? Special report: The rise of Islamic militia in Somalia | World news | The Observer | By Peter Beaumont, who is good on Somalia.
? Pashas: Traders and Travellers in the Islamic World by James Mather | Book review | Books | The Observer | Dalrymple reviews a book on the Levant Company.
? Why are there no arab democracies? [PDF] | Journal of Democracy article by Larry Diamond, who concludes it’s mostly because of oil.
? Ambassador to Syria – Laura Rozen – POLITICO.com | Robert Ford, a high-level appointee, will be first since 2006.
? Egypt-Algeria: Who’s afraid of Amr Adeeb? | Al-Masry Al-Youm | Amr Adeeb and Egyptian-Algerian football rivalry.
? Autocracy-lite in Jordan | Chris Phillips | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk | Not so sure about the ‘lite’…
? Wonk Room » Looking Toward A Future Gulf Security Architecture | Big question: will US reconfigure its role?
? Daily News Egypt – Egypt Still Involved In Secret Detentions, Says Un Report | Along with US, Russia, China, Algeria, Sudan, Zimbabwe, India and Iran. Wonder if Morocco too.
? Waq al-Waq: The Myth of Undergoverned Spaces in Yemen | No such thing – rather, “alternately governed”.
? Coptic Assembly of America | Activist site of Coptic emigrés.
? New MB leader slapped with travel ban | Al-Masry Al-Youm | As usual these days for senior Muslim Brothers.
? Brotherhood to Egypt: Don’t squeeze out moderates | Reuters | Interview with new Murshid Mohamed Badie.
? A Duped President’s Wasted Foreign-Policy Year by William Pfaff — Antiwar.com | Powerful op-ed by Pfaff (on antiwar.com!!!)
? Congress letter to Obama | Finally, congresspeople we can be proud off, here calling for an end to the Gaza blockade.
? Universities and Islam: Hearts, minds and Mecca | The Economist | ”A forthcoming book by Steffen Hertog, a sociologist, will argue that terrorists include a high number of engineers—not because of their need for bomb-making skills, but perhaps because of a mindset that likes rigidity and binary choices.”
? Holocaust remembrance is a boon for Israeli propaganda – Haaretz | On Netanyahu’s distasteful use of Holocaust remembrance for anti-immigrant, anti-Iran rant.
? The Decline of the Israeli Left | Secrecy News | Full book by Israeli writers available for download.
? Goodbye to oil that: the excesses of today’s quest for crude – The National Newspaper | Review of books on oil.
? Michael Mineo Testifies That Police Brutalized Him in Subway – NYTimes.com | NYPD Egyptian style?
? Arabic on the iPad – SaudiMac It works. Am still skeptical though, esp. as ebook reader, although it looks great for comic books.
? Ex-U.N. Weapons Inspector in Iraq Is Charged in Child-Sex Sting – NYTimes.com | A sad end to Scott Ritter.
? ei: New York Times fails to disclose Jerusalem bureau chief’s conflict of interest | Does NYT correspondent Ethan Bronner’s son serve in the Israeli army?
? Algeria’s Dirty War against the Jihadists « On War and Words | Interesting post on Algeria’s dirty war.
Mubarak: Egypt presidential elections will be freer in 2011 – Haaretz | Completely misleading story — there is nothing concrete announced by Mubarak.
? BBC – BBC Radio 4 Programmes – Classic Serial | For fans of George Smiley.
? ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ???????? | Website for Mohammed ElBaradei as president of Egypt in 2011.
? Palestinian parliament expires four years after Hamas electoral upset / The Christian Science Monitor | So now neither the West Bank nor Gaza have a legitimate government.
? U.S. playing a key role in Yemen attacks – washingtonpost.com | Interesting that CT operations in Yemen began before Christmas “crotch bomber” incident and current focus on Yemen.
? Amour, gloire, beauté et envers du décor « SN | A review of two recent Egyptian movies, in French.
? Watching Yoav Shamir’s Defamation « P U L S E | A film about the ADL’s scare-mongering.
? Interview: Mohamed ElBaradei | Foreign Policy | Excerpts of forthcoming interview.
? After Cairo: From the Vision of the Cairo Speech to Active Support for Human Dignity | Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) | Report urging Obama administration to do more on democracy-promotion and more.
? Arab silence is no substitute for policy on a troubled Iran – The National Newspaper | Emile Hokayem on the need for a regional security arrangement in the Gulf.
? Bush Pentagon Hired Conspiracy Theorist As Al Qaeda Specialist | TPMMuckraker | Analyst who pushed Saddam being behind 9/11 commissioned to write history of al-Qaeda for Pentagon.
? Al-Masry Al-Youm defies Cairocentrism | Al-Masry Al-Youm | Paper launches Alexandria edition.
Sorry to keep coming back to Egypt, but as I’ve said before, I write what I know. Tensions between Copts and Muslims in Upper Egypt have been running high since the Christmas Eve killings, and now Security has arrested 28 Copts and 14 Muslims in the rioting and burnings that took place in Bahgura (or Bahjura). There’s also a newer video of the immediate shooting aftermath on YouTube which is fairly graphic and therefore I’m not embedding it; if you really need to see it you can go here. And Al-Masry Al-Youm has a chronology of sectarian violence in Egypt since 1972. It’s not comprehensive or complete, but it’s better than anything the official press (or “semi-official” as Al-Ahram is always referenced) would publish.
As the story at the first link above shows, Copts abroad are getting into the debate now. There’s some danger here. So far the government has been promising to mete out justice to the killers (remember a policeman also died). But when the overseas Coptic community starts denouncing the Egyptian government, the government sometimes has a tendency to go into the bunker.
As you’ll see in the linked story, Morris Sadek of the National American Coptic Assembly has called for the United States to intervene and even noted that Copts were better off under French and British occupation and asked for those countries’ intervention too.
I have enormous empathy for the Copts, but this was a local Muslim-Christian vendetta, and since Napoleon’s dead and so’s Anthony Eden, the British and French reference is only going to alienate Egyptian nationalists (including many Copts). The American intervention idea? Not going to happen. When a minority, however ill-treated, seems to be calling for foreign imperial intervention against its own government, that suggests an uncertain grasp of reality. But it’s mostly Copts abroad, or some like Sadek who move between the US and Egypt, who can get away with saying these things.
Back in 1981 when Anwar Sadat deposed Pope Shenouda, it was in part a response to his embarrassment at Coptic demonstrators he encountered on his visit to Washington to see Ronald Reagan shortly before. If Copts abroad get too noisy, the government is likely to react badly. A minority, in the real world of the Middle East, is better off not defying the government.
If the perpetrators are not brought to justice, there will be plenty of grounds for protest. But calling for foreign intervention? That won’t happen, so if overseas Copts want to protect their co-religionists at home, don’t through fuel on the smouldering embers. Things are already bad enough.
? Video: Egyptian police clash with Gaza aid convoy | guardian.co.uk | Another good video about clashes between Viva Palestina and Egyptian security.
? Rebuilding Afghanistan « London Review Blog | Narcotecture = Drug-financed ugly houses in Kabul.
? Israeli television confrontation is ‘a metaphor of the moral crisis in which Zionism is found today’ | Fascinating video argument – must watch.
? Israel to deploy Gaza rocket interceptor by June – Haaretz | So no more need for blockade, I guess?
? Ainsi disait Laroui à propos de la politique. Extraits politiques « min diwan Assyassa ». « Des maux à dire | On new book on M6 era in Morocco.
? Security Experts: Administration Overstates Domestic al-Qaeda Threat « The Washington Independent | Sounds familiar.
? Pro-ElBaradei campaign seeks collective proxies | Al-Masry Al-Youm | Interesting list of backers for ElBaradei campaign, includes Amr Moussa!
? Palestine Vivra! The French Heroes of the Gaza Freedom March | A nice account.
? Jerome Slater: On the US and Israel | New blog by academic.
? The Settlement Freeze That Isn’t | The American Prospect | "The freeze is really a very thin layer of ice atop the river of settlement growth."
? BBC News – Egypt police clash with Gaza aid convoy activists | Unbelievable – Viva Palestina convoy sent through Kerem Shalom.
? Egypt to import natural gas from Iraq | Al-Masry Al-Youm | I wonder how much it costs compared to the gas sold to Israel.
? Saudi Arabia backs Egyptian plan for renewed peace talks – Haaretz | This peace plans sounds dodgy, esp. in its treatment of settlements.
? t r u t h o u t | Egypt: Rooftops Empower the Poor | Nice story on clean energy for the poor on Cairo's rooftops.
? Support the Cairo Declaration of the Gaza Freedom March Petition |
? Get Elected; or, al-Baradei Tryin’ (Part 1 of ???) « THE BOURSA EXCHANGE | TBE translates that ElBaradei interview from al-Shorouq.
? Could the Mullahs Fall This Time? – The Daily Beast | Interesting ruminations on whether Iran is near a revolution and the importance of Ashura as a symbol of the fight for justice.
? Op-Ed Columnist – The Big Zero – NYTimes.com | Economically, the decade produced nothing.
? The Angry Arab News Service/????? ????? ?????? ??????: Saudi Wahhabi Physiognomy: this man should be teaching at KAUST | Funny.
? Rasheed el-Enany on modern Arabic lit: not quite a Renaissance | Al-Masry Al-Youm | "I think the status of translated Arabic literature is better than it's ever been."
? Two Hamas members killed in Beirut explosion | Unusual… this attack was in a safe, Hizbullah-controlled area.
? Activists appeal to Mubarak over entry into Gaza – Yahoo! News |
Egypt said it would prevent their passage because of the "sensitive situation" in Gaza and warned Monday of legal repercussions for anyone defying the ban.
Around 1,300 international delegates from 42 countries have signed up to join the Gaza Freedom March which was due to enter Gaza via Egypt during the last week of December.
? Exclusive excerpt from Joe Sacco’s groundbreaking new book: Footnotes in Gaza | I'm awaiting my copy of this book from this great cartoonist.
? Sic Semper Tyrannis : Men on Horseback | Pat Lang on the Afghan policy war inside the Obama administration.
? Ardebili’s laptop – Laura Rozen – POLITICO.com | Iran holding hikers and others because US holding Iranians?
? Anis Sayigh: and Israeli history of letter bombs | Angry Arab has an interesting post on the Israeli use of letter bombs against civilians.
? Officials Point to Suspect’s Claim of Qaeda Ties in Yemen – NYTimes.com | Rather suspicious, this Yemen angle at a time when people are trying to confuse the Huthis and al-Qaeda…
? The Lives They Lived – Ben Ali – The Chili That Shaped a Family – NYTimes.com | Sausages and chilli, served to Obama by an Indian Muslim Trinidadian.
? Mainstreaming the Mad Iran Bombers | Marc Lynch | Lynch on NYT op-ed's call for war.
? The Nevada gambler, al-Qaida, the CIA and the mother of all cons | The Guardian | "Playboy magazine has revealed that the CIA fell victim to an elaborate con by a compulsive gambler who claimed to have developed software that discovered al-Jazeera broadcasts were being used to transmit messages to terrorists buried deep in America."
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