Arab News Blog

” …. Although Israel has not said so publicly, it is particularly sensitive to the news emerging from Cairo. The cold peace with Egypt – the characteristic hostility of the elite and the media notwithstanding ? is one of Israel’s top strategic assets, second only to its alliance with the United States. And even though Egypt has not disguised its disgust with Israel over settlement construction and the killing of Palestinians, the two countries see eye-to-eye on a number of lower-profile issues.

Cairo views Jerusalem as a de facto partner in the moderate camp in the region, trying to stop the influence of the radical axis led by Iran. Even during Operation Cast Lead, despite international criticism of Israel, both states were hyper aware of this goal.

Behind the scenes, there is already evidence of the start of a power struggle in Egypt. The leading candidate to replace Mubarak is his son, Gamal, although other names have been touted, including General Omer Suleiman, Egypt’s intelligence chief and central liaison to Israel’s defense establishment. Mubarak is planning to hand the reins of government over to his son around or soon after the next presidential elections, in September 2011. If this happens sooner than expected, the younger Mubarak will find himself having to quickly cement his rule and contend with two challenges: parliamentary elections (taking place next year) and presidential elections shortly afterwards.

Under Egypt’s current constitution, there is no real room for a presidential candidate from outside Mubarak’s ruling party. The regime will make a real effort to prevent opposition party the Muslim Brotherhood from increasing its influence, but Gamal Mubarak’s main concern is not the Islamists, but the possibility of a national uprising over Egypt’s poor economic state and government corruption.

If he does become the next president, Mubarak Junior is not expected to deviate from his country’s current foreign policy, nor its position on the Muslim Brotherhood….”