Arab News Blog

Issandr El Amrani, known in the blogosphere as The Arabist, has a new weekly column for Al Masry Al Youm English. This week’s asks if Egypt is “too big to fail.”

I think he makes an important point here. Of course there are uncertainties involved when a President has ruled for nearly 30 years and seems about to leave the scene. And Husni Mubarak has been a President whose stock in trade was caution: none of the surprise reversals and dramatic gestures of Anwar Sadat (throwing out the Russians, going to Israel, etc.) Some members of Mubarak’s current regime (Safwat al-Sharif, for one) have served throughout his tenure in various positions. It has been a stable system, perhaps too stable.

The military, the security services, the business establishment, the official religious establishment, and of course the ruling party apparatus and the state bureaucracy all have a lot invested in that stability. Even the Muslim Brotherhood and the opposition parties have stakes.. Some of these (the military and security services, business) are not going to allow a descent into chaos.

And Egyptians have a stoic ability to muddle through. It’s a conservative society, usually under centralized rule since King Scorpion 5000 years or so back. We just marked the 58th anniversary of the 1952 Revolution. Before 1952 there was — well, the thawra of 1919, which was aimed at the British, and the Urabi revolt in the 1880s. I think Issandr is also on target in hoping for some progress, though:

But being too big too fail can also be a curse. Egypt’s problem is not that it teeters on the brink of an abyss, as the alarmists would have it, but that it is too complacent, too certain of a rescue, too ready to choose the path of least resistance and just muddle along. Just as financial institutions assured of a bailout can eschew necessary reforms, so can political systems. Future leadership, hopefully, will be able to both steer a course away from regional extremes and to make a clean break with an unhappy status-quo.

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The Druze don’t turn up here much, with only five posts under that topic, though one was less than two weeks ago, and of course, Walid Bey has his own category. But we’ve now had a major World Druze Congress in Lebanon, with 840 delegates from 37 countries, including 35 from Israel, who of course needed some diplomacy to get there.

I hope we learn more about this pan-national Druze Congress. The Druze are — more or less by their own choice — little understood because of the secretive and esoteric nature of trhier faith, but they are a cohesive and distinct group in those countries where they have a significant presence: Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan.

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E.T. Come HomeI have been largely offline recently because of recent travels, as we settle into Morocco for the summer. While the Arab Far West provides a much gentler climate than Cairo, as every summer I worry that Hosni Mubarak will take advantage of my absence to step down, kick the bucket or somesuch. Having spent the past 10 years of my life waiting for that moment, I don’t want to miss out (a rather sad realization, I know.)

The recent rumors about Mubarak’s ill-health — that his recent trip to Paris was for a check-up (Mubarak used to get discreetly treated by La Republique Française at the military hospital at Saint-Cyr), or that he might imminently visit his German doctors (who have been quietly visiting him in Cairo and Sharm al-Sheikh for months) — are practically unverifiable, of course. Rather than speculate on their authenticity, we might reflect on the fact that Egyptian authorities thought it fit to deny them. Which, of course, can only heighten the speculation in Arab countries, where regimes usually only issue false information and denials are interpreted as early confirmations (there is a fascinating treatise to be written about information flows and interpretation in dictatorships.)

Or that this will pretty be par for the course in the months and years ahead. Assuming, as I am, that Mubarak is seriously ill but has some time left (or indeed may recover) he will be constantly subjected to this kind of rumor-mongering. Canceling a meeting with Netanyahu? Must be rushing off to Germany. Visiting Europe? Must be to visit a nearby clinic. Attending a military parade? It all smacks of trying too hard. These are facile conclusions that hide a nearly total information vacuum. Yes, you can look at the picture above and conclude that Hosni Mubarak is not feeling too well. But does it tell you, as one diplomat told the World Tribune, that he is a living corpse? 

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“The haredi community is being portrayed as a collective that does not study the right subjects, is not enlightened enough (yet those who hate it are very much enlightened,) does not work, and lives at the government’s expense, of course.” Zionism is sensitivity one’s group only–the same group. (thanks Daniel)

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Reuters – A Libyan-chartered ship carrying aid for Palestinians reached an Egyptian port on Wednesday after altering its course following a warning from Israel’s navy not to head to the blockaded Gaza Strip.

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AFP – A Libyan aid ship resumed its voyage on Wednesday after stalling overnight, with the organisers insisting it was on course for Gaza and defying calls by the Israeli navy to dock in Egypt.

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AP – A ship sent by a Libyan charity to break Israel’s naval blockade of the Gaza Strip changed course in the Mediterranean Sea on Wednesday and instead appeared headed for an Egyptian port, signaling that it would avoid a showdown with the Israeli navy.

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AP – The Libyan organizers of an aid ship trying to breach Israel’s three-year blockade of Gaza say an Israeli military vessel has confronted the ship and ordered it to change course for the Egyptian port of el-Arish.

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CNN, following in the footsteps of ignorant Israeli orientalists, refers to Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah as “the spiritual leader of Hizbullah.” Of course, Fadlallah has no role within Hizbullah what so ever. (thanks Christopher)

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Trying very hard to get our summer issue caught up despite being sidelined by my hip replacement, I have so far neglected to comment on one of the more bizarre stories that ran around the region starting over the weekend: that Israel (and/or the US) is preparing to strike Iran from air bases in Georgia and Azerbaijan, and that Israeli aircraft in the Caucasus managed to get there by deceiving Turkey.

At first glance, it seems like a wild and crazy idea. At second glance, it seems even crazier. Despite some superficial arguments in favor (Israeli aircraft would have a shorter strike range; Iran’s air defense system is presumably not as concentrated on the Caucasus front as in the Gulf), neither Georgia nor Azerbaijan is in a position to throw themselves into a confrontation with Iran. (Of course, two summers ago, Georgia provoked a fight with Russia and got invaded, so perhaps self-interest only goes so far as an argument.) Azerbaijanis and Iranian Azeris are one people speaking a common language. The ex-Soviet air bases in the Transcaucasus would need some work to service Israeli aircraft. So what is the source of this strange story?

The story seems to originate with an American radio/web commentator of sensational bent named Gordon Duff, who was talking about this a week or so before it broke in the region. The story in its present form broke in the region over the weekend with the Bahrain Arabic daily Akhbar al-Khaleej, citing “Western political and military sources” (article is in Arabic). A short version appeared in the newspaper’s English-language partner Gulf Daily News, thus gaining more traction outside the Arab world. It has been commented upon by Stratfor, with appropriate skepticism, though the full article is available only to subscribers.

I’m betting this is disinformation, but then the question becomes: whose? Just a bit over a week ago we had the kerfuffle over the Harry S Truman strike group transiting the Suez Canal, and we are indeed in a moment when the Truman and Eisenhower strike groups are both on station in the Gulf before the Eisenhower comes home. The US and Israel may both have motives for keeping Iran off balance (and Iran did back off its “Gaza flotilla” effort citing the risk of Israeli attack). It could also be an attempt to foreclose any cooperation, even logistical support, that the Transcaucasus countries might provide Israel or the US by making allegations now. It could also just be conspiracy theorizing at its most fervid, or of course, some elements might even be true. Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not plotting against you. Other countries (including Russia) might have some reason to spread a story like this, though: undermine Georgia and Azerbaijan, hurt their relations with Turkey and Iran, perhaps?

But do I think Israel, with or without the US, is about to launch a strike against Iran from the Caucasus? No, I don’t.

Of course, they wouldn’t tell me if they were.

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