Dimitri Simes in TIME/ here
President Obama has presented the new arms control treaty he signed in Prague on April 8 as a “historic accomplishment” in both nuclear security and U.S. relations with Russia. But there are disturbing signs that the Obama Administration is overselling its progress with Russia, raising unrealistic hopes that Moscow would genuinely help in addressing the danger from Iran, the most likely nuclear threat to America and its allies.
The administration, eager to show foreign policy successes, argues that the new treaty with Russia, which calls on both sides to reduce their nuclear forces to 1500 warheads, reflects a significantly improved relationship that will help to deliver Moscow’s support for strong sanctions against Tehran. But it is not clear that ties between the White House and the Kremlin have improved quite that much. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev’s performance in Argentina, right after the nuclear summit, demonstrates that ties between Washington and Moscow fall well short of partnership. “If somebody is bothered” in America by Moscow seeking a greater role in Latin America, he said, “we want to spit on that.” His statement led the news on Russian state television. Later in his “Spit Speech,” the Russian President made clear that his government does not favor “paralyzing, crippling sanctions” — the only sanctions that could deter an Iranian regime determined to have a nuclear weapons capability…..
…. Although United Nations Security Council sanctions seem increasingly likely (even the Bush Administration succeeded three times at that), there is a difference between getting a deal and getting results. The new arms control treaty demonstrates that it is easier to produce nice-sounding diplomatic documents than to take major steps toward advancing American security. Iran will be the key test of U.S.-Russian relations and, unfortunately, watered-down sanctions from a divided Security Council are unlikely to move Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions.”
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Dimitri Simes (Nixon Ctr.) in TIME Mag., here
” ….. Besides the U.S. and Iran, Russia seems to be the other major player on the nuclear issue. Whether or not Iran follows through on a draft deal to send much of its low-enriched uranium to Russia for further processing into fuel for a medical-research reactor, Moscow is in the middle. If the agreement works, it will boost Russia’s international role, securing gratitude from the West without damaging Russia’s ties to Tehran. If the accord falls through — or Iran agrees but does not comply — Moscow’s support will be essential in imposing U.N. sanctions. China won’t come along if Russia doesn’t, and the Iranians know it.
The Obama Administration argues that Russia and the U.S. have a common interest in stopping Tehran from building the Bomb. This is true, but only up to a point. Russia has a history of good relations with Iran. It has substantial trade interests there and appreciates Tehran’s lack of support for radical Islamists in the North Caucasus. Moscow also fears that a pro-Western Iran would exclude Russian arms, technology and energy firms.
Growing tension between President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin complicates the picture. While Medvedev has been relatively forthcoming to the U.S. line on Iran, Putin (who is indirectly in charge of the state-controlled companies that trade there) has appeared skeptical. Putin said any decision on sanctions would be made not by Medvedev alone but by Russia’s Security Council, which also includes himself, his Cabinet subordinates and parliamentary leaders loyal to the Prime Minister. Administration officials deny taking sides. Yet on the eve of his July summit in Moscow, Obama praised Medvedev and referred to Putin as having “one foot in the old ways of doing business.” He later praised Putin too, but his Administration has done little to build bridges with the Prime Minister, who remains a crucial national decision maker. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not even see Putin when she was in Moscow recently, because the Administration did not coordinate the trip with his office; he was off signing an energy deal in China.
(continue, here)
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Categories: Arab Blogs Tags: China, Clinton, deal, Dimitri Simes, dmitri medvedev, Iran, Moscow, Nixon, North Caucasus, Obama, President Dmitri Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister. Administration, Russia, Secretary of State Hillary, support, Tehran, U.S., Vladimir Putin, Western Iran
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