Arab News Blog

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Today Iranians mark Now Ruz, their ancient New Year’s day, celebrated on the vernal equinox (which most often falls on March 21 but sometimes, as today, on the 20th). Now Ruz literally means “New Day.” Persian is an Indo-European language ultimately related to English, and “now” (pronounced “no”) and “new” are cognates.

As he did last year, President Barack Obama addressed Iran in a Now Ruz message. He renewed his offer of comprehensive diplomatic contacts with Tehran, decrying what he called the Iranian government’s determination to isolate itself.

Obama pledged to allow more Iranian students to study in the United States, and noted the recent decision to lift obstacles to US internet firms supplying the Iranian market, including Facebook.

Obama’s Iran outreach was stymied by the outbreak of massive protests in Iran after last June’s presidential elections, which the opposition maintains were stolen by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It also ran into difficulties when the apparent deal struck at Geneva on October 1, and tentatively agreed to by the representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was rejected on his return to Iran by hardliners, presumably in the Revolutionary Guards.

Obama’s dogged determination to engage Iran and his decisions on exchange students and internet openness are far more likely to bear fruit than his predecessor’s dismissive and belligerent policies. The resistance of the White House to a campaign by the Israel lobbies for crippling sanctions and even military action against Iran is one element in the tense relations between Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

Iranian opposition leader Mir Hosain Mousavi praised the Green protest movement in the past year and pledged to continue to work for a more open press and the right to assemble and protest (pro forma already in the Iranian constitution).

Human rights and internet activists called upon the regime to release Iran’s “blogfather,” Hosain Derakhshan, from prison. Derakhshan, then living in Canada, pioneered techniques for blogging in Persian and sparked a communications revolution in Iran.

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President Obama says the US offer of dialogue with Iran still stands, in a New Year message to the Iranian people.
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FP/ here

“… Domestic policy isn’t our beat (except when it gets in the way of foreign policy) but we know that in Washington nothing succeeds like success and a vote like this will define the prevailing media narrative on the Obama administration: come Monday they will be seen as either brilliant or bungling. This narrative is going to extend beyond healthcare to other major issues, including foreign policy.

So here’s a quick guide to what the state of the world will be, depending on whether or not the bill goes through.

If health care passes:

Iran: The Islamic Republic is on its last legs, challenged at every turn by the ever-expanding Green movement, which the Obama administration wisely avoided undermining with explicit public support. Instead of a confrontational approach, the U.S. has taken its time to build international consensus, put tough but highly-targeted sanctions in place, and given Mahmoud Ahmadinejad just enough rope to hang himself.

Af-Pak: The offensive in Marjah was a rousing success, al Qaeda leaders are being taken out or arrested left and right, the tide is turning against the insurgency, Pakistan is finally cooperating, Gen. Stanley McChrystal is the greatest U.S. military commander since Douglas MacArthur.

Iraq: The withdrawal of U.S. troops continues on schedule, violence is way down, Iraq’s sectarian are working out their in Parliament rather than in the streets, David Petraeus is the greatest U.S. miltary commander since George Washington.

Israel-Palestine: Finally, a U.S. administration showed some backbone dealing with Israel, condemning the expansion of settlements and working to strong-arm both sides to the table. Netanyahu’s settlement freeze was a step in the right direction. Obama has proven that the White House can be a strong ally to Israel without being a pushover.

Russia: U.S.-Russia relations are better than they’ve been since the 1990s. Thanks to the Obama administration’s less confrontational approach and compromise on missile defense, a successor to the START treaty is near and Moscow is finally starting to cooperate on Iran.

Gitmo/detainees: The Obama administration has restored constitutional norms and proven that the war on terror on terror can be won and valuable intelligence gained without torture or illegal detentions. Dozens of Gitmo detainees have been relocated and the civilian trials for al Qaeda leaders will be a success.

Global warming: Thanks to Obama’s last minute intervention, the climate change summit saved face in Copenhagen. After healthcare, with momentum on its side, the administration will take on energy and finally make cap and trade a reality.

Rahm Emanuel: A fucking genius.

If health care fails:

Iran: With his shameful silence, Obama hung the Green Movement out to dry. Iran is closer than ever to building a nuke, (if Israel doesn’t bomb it first) the Chinese are never going to cooperate on sanctions, and the administration’s engagement strategy has been proven a failure.

Af-Pak: U.S. troops are sinking into a unwinnable quagmire, Marjah was a meaningless backwater, Afghanistan’s corrupt government and incompetent military will never be able to function without U.S. support, Pakistan is placating the U.S. while still not taking the Taliban seriously. Obama should have listened to Joe Biden when he had the chance.

Iraq: The election was marred by fraud, none of the major political disputes have been resolved, the insurgency is biding its time, the U.S. military faces a choice between remaining in Iraq for decades or watching a sectarian bloodbath erupt as it pulls out.

Israel-Palestine: The setttlements continue to expand, Obama is hopelessly unpopular in Israel and unable to influence Netanyahu, the Palestinian Authority is a corrupt joke and Hamas will never renounce violence. George Mitchell should quit while he still retains a shred of credibility.

Russia: While Hillary Clinton has tea with Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin is eating Obama’s lunch. Russia is building nuclear reactors in Iran, delaying START again and again, meddling in Ukraine, tightening its grip on Georgia’s breakaway regions and repressing its own people. The reset was nothing more than appeasement, and the U.S. hasn’t even gotten anything out of it.

Gitmo/detainees: Obama hasn’t even been able to close Gitmo, but in any event, he’s putting Americans at risk of another terror attack by not letting interrogators do their job. The civilian trials, if they happen at all, will be a publicity circus that makes a mockery of the fight against terror. The justice department is infested with al Qaeda sleeper agents.

Global warming: Was invented by Al Gore to sell DVDs.

Rahm Emanuel: [Unprintable.]

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Powell to Bloomberg/ here

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In FP/ here

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BEIRUT (Reuters) – Violence could spread across the Middle East with Israel paying a "heavy price" if it launched military action against Iran, the deputy leader of Hezbollah said on Thursday.Israel s…
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WaPo/ here

“… Events are reminiscent of the 1990s, when the bloody Afghan civil war was fueled by an alignment of India, Iran and Russia, which backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban regime supported by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia….

India, Iran and Russia have long been averse to any dialogue with the Taliban that could give Pakistan greater leverage in the region or with Washington. All see the various extremist groups based in Pakistan as threats to their security. India is working to rebuild the regional alliance that opposed the Taliban and Pakistan in the 1990s. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin visited India last Thursday, partly to discuss a common strategy on a post-U.S. Afghanistan. Senior Indian officials have met with Karzai in Kabul and are due in Iran later this month.

Yet Pakistan’s military clearly wants a role in shaping Afghanistan. Islamabad had given the Taliban leadership sanctuary since 2001, but in recent weeks the military has arrested several key Taliban leaders who went around the generals and the intelligence service and were using Saudi Arabia as an intermediary to talk to Kabul. Still left alone, however, are Taliban hard-liners who could promote Pakistan’s security needs in future dialogues with Kabul…”

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MEPGS: Excerpts:

As US officials appear to be backing away from a confrontation with Israel in the wake of Vice President Biden's controversial visit, there are more than a few bruised feelings on both sides. More important, it seems likely that the Israeli- US relationship is in for even tougher times in the weeks and months ahead.  To begin with, it is clear that orders came from the top, no less than President Obama, that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was to be confronted over the embarrassing decision......... The scolding delivered Secretary of State Clinton, over the phone to the Israeli Prime Minister and in person to Michael Oren, Israel's Ambassador to the US, was exceptional both in its tone and the scope of its demands.      According to published reports, Clinton not only insisted that the Israelis find a way to insure that such an embarrassment never be allowed to take place again but added three new demands.  First, the US wants assurances, the now delayed "proximity talks" transition to direct talks on all topics [Previously this was an Administration assumption].  Second, they said they wanted Israel to make a gesture to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who was already ambivalent about the value of these talks.  Finally, and most controversial, Israel was to find a way to halt construction of the new housing units.        According to informed sources, a short deadline was set for Israel to respond -- a deadline that has not been met.  Moreover, the tone employed by Clinton outraged Israeli officials.  Said one well-placed source, "They don't talk to [Venezuelan President Hugo] Chavez that way."  As this drama was unfolding, a number of senior level Administration officials, including White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel were trying to calm the waters.  Others, like CENTCOM commander General David Petraeus, were, in effect, adding fuel to the fire, when in Congressional testimony, he alluded to the lack of progress on Arab-Israeli talks causing additional problems for US military planners , already engaged in combat in the muslim world.  Moreover, according to well-placed sources, withholding US military and intelligence cooperation is "one of the sticks" the Administration wielded in its conversations with Netanyahu and Oren.

      Even if, as many observers believe, this imbroglio in contained, a number of key officials say it is only a matter of time before Israel and the US are once again at loggerheads, if not over the peace process then over a strategy for dealing with Iran.  Part of the reason for Biden's visit to Israel and that of a number of other top civilian and military leaders there in recent weeks, is to make certain, in the words of one top US official "...that Israel is `on board'" with the American approach to handling Iran's headlong rush towards nuclear development.      US officials candidly share political strategy with the Israelis regarding their approach to implementing new sanctions against Teheran at the UN and elsewhere [US officials have even gone so far as to try to enlist Israeli cooperation in fending off Congressional attempts to pass legislation penalizing foreign companies doing business with Iran.  As one top US official puts it, "We know the Hill's intentions are good.  Just the way they are going about it will upset our plans to work with other countries who will see their efforts as an attempt to impose `extraterritoriality' on them"].      The first goal is to get a new resolution from the Security Council.  At latest count, eleven of the fifteen members have informally signed on.  Brazil and Turkey continue to be a problem.  Lebanon, with its dominant Iranian-backed militia, Hezbollah, is considered a lost cause.  But the big prize remains China and its veto.  So, far US officials have not given up hope on gaining China's acquiescence to a mild resolution but may well have to settle for an abstention.  The importance of the UN vote lies in its acting as a catalyst for other nations, notably the European Union [EU] to impose a series of much stronger, if not exactly "crippling" sanctions on Iran.  And the target will be the Revolutionary Guards, which according to some top US officials, now control more than one-third of the Iranian economy [The prospect of imposing sanctions on oil imports, upon which Iran, ironically is dependent because of its limited refining capacity, has been pretty much taken off of the table -- partly, say top US officials because of the difficulty of enforcing such a regime and according to others, because in could impose "undue" hardship on the average Iranian].      ........But with thousands of American troops destined to remain in next door Iraq

for the foreseeable future and thousands more going into battle

daily in Afghanistan, another Iranian neighbor, the last thing the US military, including Defense Secretary Gates, wants is a military confrontation with Iran.      But if, as some experts argue, sanctions are doomed to failure, what are the other options?  One US expert, close to Gates as well and National Security Advisor Jones, argues that it is time to jettison this "sanctions fantasy" and prepare to deal with a nuclear armed Iran.  According to well-placed officials, this would mean a continued tightening of sanctions and eventual isolation of Iran from most of the world's commerce.  However, opponents of this approach argue that should Israel get wind of "post nuclear planning" for Iran, Jerusalem would be sure to act unilaterally..      Already frustrated by a timetable that has slipped from last December to April for UN sanctions action [considered a good time with Japan as Security Council Chair for the month and preceding Lebanon's assumption of the role], it is clear that the Israelis are running out of patience.  Moreover, intelligence sources believe that while the Israeli security establishment still is unsure of its ability to mount a highly effective attack on Iran proper, it has become increasingly confident of its ability to withstand and defeat any Iranian retaliation, notably a missile attack launched by Hezbollah on Israel's north.

    


A number of well-placed sources say that for Israel, 2010 is the year of decision.  If by the end of the year, Iran has not started to retreat in the face of international pressure, then Israel will begin to seriously prepare for military action.  As one top US official puts it, "Israel hasn't made the decision to act.  But it has crossed the psychological barrier to act." If true, then today's tensions with Washington will seem quite modest. "

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The Leveretts at the RFI/ here

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