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Posts Tagged ‘policy’

Hillary’s war-drums on Iran; Russia unwilling?

February 25th, 2010 Arab News No comments

Hillary Clinton was on Capitol Hill today, telling US lawmakers that,

    “Iran has left the international community little choice but to impose greater costs and pressure in the face of its provocative steps… We are now working actively with our partners to prepare and implement new measures to pressure Iran to change its course.”

However, there has all along been considerable doubt whether China will go along with such measures, at the U.N. Then, there’s Russia…

Until today, U.S. spinmeisters had been expressing some confidence that Russia would join the “twist the screws tighter” policy. But today, Xinhua reported from Moscow that,

    Russia will honor a contract to deliver its advanced S-300 air defense systems to Iran after resolving a series of problems, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday.

And yesterday, China itself reiterated its calls that the Iranian nuclear-program crisis be addressed through stepped-up diplomacy, not confrontation.

Clinton probably feels herself under some pressure from the success that AIPAC, the very powerful America Israel Public Affairs Committee, has had in its massive, well-funded campaign to get legislators to adopt resolutions mandating unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iran in the event Iran refuses to dance immediately to Uncle Sam’s tune on the nuclear issue.

These resolutions have two harmful effects. They would unilaterally penalize U.S. businesses at a time that businesses elsewhere continue to trade with Iran. And they restrict the administration’s ability to commit fully to the pursuit of foreign policy, which is, of course, a responsibility reserved to the administration under the U.S. Constitution.

But hey, why should AIPAC care about mere inconveniences like that!

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WINEP: "Not so fast with Syria: Hezbollah, Imad Moustapha, & changing the equation along the Israeli-Lebanese border"

February 20th, 2010 Arab News No comments


“…. While Syrian facilitation of insurgents into Iraq has slowed, top U.S. generals and senior Iraqi officials say the problem remains. At the same time, an increasing body of evidence suggests that Damascus has provided the terrorist organization Hezbollah with a new generation of sophisticated weaponry – including advanced antiaircraft weapons — that changes the equation along the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Meanwhile, just weeks ago, it was reported that North Korea had resumed its shipment of sensitive military technology to Syria, the first such transfer since Israel bombed the Assad regime’s nuclear weapons facility in 2007.
Taken together, persistent Syrian support for terrorism and development of weapons of mass destruction does not suggest a regime trying to improve its bilateral relationship with Washington. Still, under increasing economic pressures and facing a severe drought, Damascus no doubt is hoping to get relief from long-standing U.S. economic sanctions. But given Syria’s behavior, removal of these sanctions in the near future is unlikely……
Despite the frustrations of the past year, the Obama administration this week appears to be doubling down on Damascus. The policy is driven by the desire to loosen, if not sever, the ties between Damascus and Tehran and thereby increase pressure on the clerical regime.
Syria is already saying the U.S. gambit will fail. Meanwhile, the Assad regime is declaring a victory. The re-posting of a U.S. envoy represents nothing less than the confirmation of the centrality of Syria in U.S. Middle East policy, a misreading that could embolden the longtime rogue regime.
The one potential benefit of a senior U.S. diplomat returning to Damascus is said to be a quid pro quo involving the imminent departure from Washington of Syria’s longtime ambassador, Imad Moustapha. Since 2000, Moustapha has served as chief regime propagandist and spinmeister, and his incessant leaking and mischaracterizations of U.S. policy initiatives have proved a complicating factor in the relationship.
While the latest U.S. diplomatic moves may improve communication between Washington and Damascus, absent progress on terrorism or the Middle East peace process, the new U.S. ambassador in Syria will have little of substance to discuss with the Assad regime. Instead, like his predecessor, the ambassador will be occupied with delivering diplomatic demarches — government nasty-grams — conveying Washington’s ongoing disappointment with Damascus.”

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"…We have no item for "bribery" in the foreign operations budget bill which is why we turn to the Saudis to do it on our behalf.."

February 16th, 2010 Arab News No comments

“Whenever I ponder some of the challenges U.S. foreign policy faces today in Afghanistan, Somalia, or Yemen, I inevitably return to a passage in Bob Woodward’s “Veil,” describing how Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah, after an attempt to assassinate him had failed, was persuaded to restrain his followers in Lebanon from launching attacks on U.S. interests:


The Saudis approached him and asked whether . . . he would act as their early-warning system for terrorist attacks on Saudi and American facilities. They would pay $2 million cash. Fadlallah accepted, but said he wanted the payment in food, medicine and education expenses for some of his people. This would enhance his status among his followers. The Saudis agreed. There were no more Fadlallah-sponsored terrorist attacks against Americans.

…. This is not only a possible strategy for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency. The principles can be applied to other foreign policy problems as well. We don’t want Russia to deliver the S-300 anti-aircraft system to Iran? Moral pressure on Moscow is likely to fail, because it is a business decision. If another buyer came forward to buy out the contract, however, the Russians might very well play ball.

There’s already precedent for this kind of approach. In the late 1990s, the United States did not want Cyprus to deploy a similar system on the island, because Turkey was concerned about the threat these missiles might pose to control of its airspace over southern Turkey. The contract ultimately went through, but the missiles were deployed elsewhere — in Greece. Russia didn’t lose any money on the deal, and the strategic goals of the United States were achieved. Along these lines, there have already been rumors that the Saudis are now considering tempting Moscow with a massive purchase of Russian weaponry as a way to compensate Russian businesses that would lose out should the Kremlin block the sale of sensitive military components to Iran.

The same logic holds if we want China and India….
We have no line item for “bribery” in the foreign operations budget bill (which is perhaps one reason we have traditionally turned to the Saudi monarchy to engage in such activities on our behalf)……

Certainly payments are not a long-term solution. Allies brought under your banner through bribery are less reliable than those who align with you out of sincere belief and commitment. But such payments are a necessary tool of statecraft — especially in getting solutions in the short term. They represent a first step, usually to get a pause in fighting — after which they need to be followed up with effective policy. The epitaph of the Sunni awakening in Iraq may end up being “What was achieved with the dinar was lost by the politicians,” as the temporary calm it produced did not lead to major political breakthroughs.

Vladimir Putin once famously stated that he was not going to treat foreign policy as a bargaining session in the bazaar. But in reality, that’s often how coalitions are forged and compromises reached. It’s time to think about foreign affairs as a marketplace again, not all of the time, but at least when nothing else will work. That means being prepared to spend what currency is needed to make the sale. And sometimes nothing works as well as cold, hard cash.

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More signs of Mitchell’s sidelining

February 13th, 2010 Arab News No comments

There’s been quite a bit of talk in the conference here about the way that George Mitchell has either been sidelined or has for other reasons faded from the scene. Of course, it’s not just Mitchell that has been sidelined, it’s the whole justice-based and vigorous U.S. pursuit of peace that his appointment back in January 2009 seemed to promise.

So today the NYT tells us that Sec. Clinton and three of her top aides are fanning out to the Middle East in a concerted campaign to–

…make a push for Palestinian-Israeli peace? No!

Rather, they’re trekking out to try to line regional leaders up behind the latest step in the (AIPAC- and Likud-driven) campaign to ratchet the pressure up inexorably against Iran.

And who are these envoys?

Well, there’s Hillary herself, who’s going to Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Then, there’s her Under-Secretary for political affairs, Bill Burns, who’s going to Syria.

And there are her two Deputy Secretaries, for Policy and Administration… James Steinberg (Policy) will be going to Israel, and Jacob Lew (Administration) will be going to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.

And when was the last time we heard any major news about George Mitchell? (Yawn.)

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"… It could very well be that we can no longer — and could never — do anything to stop that from happening …"

February 11th, 2010 Arab News No comments

Judah Grunstein in WPR/ here

” … None of this represents a failure of the Obama administration’s policy of engagement, which was complicated by an Iranian political crisis that continues to limit Tehran’s ability to take yes for an answer. Absent an opportunistic — but also revealing — Green movement attack on the deal, it might have gone through (although that’s impossible to say for sure).

Given some of the dramatically incoherent declarations coming out of Tehran over the past few weeks, it’s also still possible that a last-minute deal is in the works. There’s even a diplomatic trail for backchannel negotiations, with a Qatari crown prince making a Tehran-Paris shuttle run last week, followed by an announced trip by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Qatar this weekend.

In the meantime, the case for sanctions, both at the U.N. and unilaterally, has been enormously strengthened ….. Will sanctions prove effective? Probably not, although the sanctions being described — which target the Revolutionary Guard in order to reinforce the faultlines in the Iranian regime — seem to be more thoughtfully conceived than previous rounds.

Is a nuclear — or a latent-nuclear — Iran the end of the world? Probably not, although it would come with great many consequences, many of them unpredictable and most of them unwelcome.
It could very well be that we can no longer — and could never — do anything to stop that from happening. But sometimes diplomacy is as much about second-order effects as immediate results. The inability to block Iran’s nuclear ambitions reveals the limits of American power when it is not supported by other poles of influence in the increasingly diffuse global balance of pwoer. But by positioning the U.S. to be not only right, but reasonable, the Obama policy will enhance our subsequent ability to mobilize regional and global pressure in similar situations.”

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Links for Feb 5-6 2010

February 6th, 2010 Arab News No comments



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The Obama disappointment

February 5th, 2010 Arab News No comments
HRW’s Ken Roth, in an IPS interview:
Q: Are you disappointed with Barack Obama? 

A: I have been disappointed by Obama in a number of respects. First of all I think it’s worth saying that Obama is still a significant improvement over [George] Bush. There’s been a very notable improvement in presidential rhetoric but a failure to apply that rhetoric in many cases. Obama has given a series of quite inspiring speeches but then has not built a policy around those speeches. In Accra, for example, he distinguished himself from [Bill] Clinton’s policy of embracing the so-called new generation of African leaders that turned out to be authoritarian dictators: Paul Kagame [in Rwanda] or Meles Zenawi [in Ethiopia]. Obama said Africa doesn’t need strong leaders, it needs strong institutions and spoke about the rule of law, free press, independent civil society and the like. That was an excellent message, well-tailored to the audience. But the Obama administration has put very little pressure on Meles or Kagame to reverse their authoritarian trends. Similarly, in Cairo, he talked about the importance of democracy and made clear that, unlike Bush, who promoted democracy until the wrong person won, until Hamas won in the Palestinian territories or until the Muslim Brotherhood did better than expected in the Egyptian parliamentary elections, Obama was going to respect whoever was the victor. It was suggested that he would even respect the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. A very important message but he then did not follow up by pressing [Egyptian President Hosni] Mubarak to democratise. Mubarak visited the White House and there was no public mention of democracy. There’s been no pressure on the Saudi royal family, no pressure on other autocratic U.S. allies in the Middle East to democratise. 

The rest of the interview is interesting too.
I know everybody is disappointed with Obama right now — it’s hardly an original position. I have to say although I was not an Obama supporter (i.e. I expected him to disappoint, and notably to show a lack of backbone from his behavior during the campaign) I find myself surprised at the extent to which, well, he doesn’t seem very good. A more appropriate question to ask of him, rather than whether he’s sold out or misled people about his policies, is that he may simply be not very competent. Whether you agree with him or not about policies, if you take him on his own terms, it’s hard to come away distinctly unimpressed.
Anyway, this brings me to this op-ed by my friend Ezzedine Choukri in the al-Ahram Weekly, titled “See you later, Mr. President!”"

For someone who made a new approach to the Middle East such an integral part of his foreign policy platform, the outcome of a year in power is strikingly meagre. If anything, President Obama’s first year has been marked by a surprising lack of leadership on the Middle East. The expectations Obama created about a “new beginning” for America in the region are fast dissipating. While the frustration of the peoples of the Middle East could be of little political significance for the American president, the policy ramifications of missing leadership are not.

On the crown jewel of the region’s problems, the protracted Arab- Israeli conflict, Obama’s administration failed to come up with a meaningful policy. Unable or unwilling to spend political capital on a showdown with the Israeli rightist government, the administration adopted a hackneyed, stopgap policy. The sterility of its stated goal — getting Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table — is plain for all to see. Palestinians and Israelis have been sitting at that table for years; we are all familiar with their endless arguments, complaining and manipulations. Everyone knows that returning them to that table is not going to bring peace or security to either of them, or to the region. But it is a goal that the administration thought attainable and serving to its image at an affordable political price. To add insult to injury, a year has passed without achieving this modest, useless goal. The sense of historic mission of the Cairo speech about reconciling Arab and Jewish narratives has faded, leaving behind a real life-sized political president admitting his earlier miscalculation.

He concludes:

Is this but another complaint by a disappointed Middle Easterner who hoped that Obama would be fair to his region? Not in the least. I don’t think that the peoples of the Middle East are politically relevant in this story. They don’t vote or fundraise in American elections, they don’t take initiative or even help when asked, and they always complain about US policies anyway. What is politically relevant, though, is the consequence of Obama’s Middle Eastern choices on the region and on the US standing in it. Inaction and lack of leadership are not a recommended policy for the indispensable superpower. It means passing the initiative to local actors who either advance their own interests regardless of regional stability as a whole, or create crises in order to draw the US back in. In either case, the US administration would be setting itself up for ad hoc reactions. Presidents who choose not to invest in the Middle Eastern quagmire were eventually sucked into it unprepared. This could take the form of another “unexpected” eruption in the Arab-Israeli saga, a “surprise” collapse of a friendly regime, or a major terrorist attack. In a nutshell, every American president who gave the Middle East low priority lived to regret it.

Here I partly disagree, or would go further. The US has an opportunity to redeem itself and re-adjust its involvement in the region by encouraging the emergence of a stable regional order that does not need US initiative to prevent or solve crises. In the long term, this would be the best thing for the region and for the US (in terms of its heavier than necessary footprint in the region and the economic, political and security costs that brings) while still guaranteeing key interests (which should include stable flow of oil and safety of sea traffic, not supporting Israeli expansionism). Obama could have been the president to start this, but instead we see him be half-Carter, half-Bush. What a disappointment.



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Turkey becoming more confident in striding world stage

January 29th, 2010 Arab News No comments

Turkey is starting to flex its muscles in relation to its approach to foreign policy.
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The New York Times’ sinister language

January 26th, 2010 Arab News No comments

Why did the New York Times find it necessary to insert this sentence at the end of this article: “He has been an outspoken critic of American policy in the Middle East.” Is the implication here that those who criticize US foreign policy in the Middle East tend to be sexual predators?

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World Health Agencies Condemn Israeli Blockade of Gaza (Again); Obama’s Biggest Mideast Failure

January 21st, 2010 Arab News No comments

When a relief plane for the Physicians without Borders isn’t allowed to land by US military authorities at the airport in Port-au-Prince, there is an outcry.

But Israeli military authorities will not allow any relief planes at all to land in the Gaza Strip (the Israelis destroyed Gaza’s airport in 2001).

We cheer when a Haitian child is rescued from the rubble, but ignore the thousands of Gazan children who are suffering malnutrition and being buried by Israeli policy, a policy that is a war crime. I am of course not the only to be struck by this contrast: see also Phil Weiss and others quoted at his essential site.

On Wednesday, 80 international aid groups called upon Israel to change its policy of blockading civilians in Gaza, because it is having severe negative effects on the health of Gazans.

Admittedly, the situation in Gaza is not as dire as that in Haiti. But it is very, very bad, and it is man-made. The Israeli government imposed a blockade on the Gaza strip in 2007 and has maintained it ever since. It limits the import of fuel and staples, and punishes the whole population. Since half of the 1.5 million Gazans are children, the Israeli siege of the little territory is among the more massive ongoing cases of child abuse in the world. There is a virtual news blackout on this atrocity in the US mass media, and attempts of two sets of activists to get humanitarian aid to Gaza in recent weeks were largely ignored by them.

Nor is the Gaza blockade a mere preoccupation of utopian human rights activists. It has become an element of regional geo-politics. It is part of the reason for significant tensions between Israel and one of its few allies in the Middle East, Turkey. As Turkey has democratized and Muslim sentiments have become more important in its politics, and as it has increasingly emerged as a new Middle Eastern power (some speak of neo-Ottomanism), its concern with issues such as Gaza has become more central. The horrible condition of the Gazans is often the lead story on Arab satellite news channels such as Aljazeera, and public anger about it (expressed as much toward the US and the Egyptian regime as toward the US) is at a boiling point. That anger feeds into terrorism against the West. The Gaza blockade is isolating Israel and fuelling a widespread boycott movement in Europe, Canada and South Africa. And, of course, the blockade makes even the virulently anti-Shiite Sunni fundamentalists of Hamas willing to take aid from Iran, bestowing a toehold in the Levant on Tehran. The French statesman Talleyrand once observed of Napoleon I’s murder of the Duc d’Enghien that “It is worse than a crime; it is a blunder.” The same could be said of the Gaza blockade from the point of view of any realistic Israeli and US foreign policy.

Last year UNICEF found that about one in ten children in Gaza is severely malnourished, to the point of stunting. The Israeli blockade is deeply implicated in this semi-starvation of tens of thousands of children, as is the Gaza War launched by Israel a little over a year ago, which wrecked nearly one-fifth of farms and deeply hurt agriculture in general. Gaza once flourished agriculturally, but it was cut off by Israel from its natural markets in the Levant, and the US and Egypt have been induced to support the blockade.

The World Health Organization fact sheet on Gaza’s plight, issued yesterday, reads like a post-apocalyptic Hollywood film. WHO says:

‘ The closure of Gaza since mid-2007 and the last Israeli military strike between 27 December 2008 and 18 January 2009 have led to on-going deterioration in the social, economic and environmental determinants of health.

Many specialized treatments, for example for complex heart surgery and certain types of cancer, are not available in Gaza and patients are therefore referred for treatment to hospitals outside Gaza. But many patients have had their applications for exit permits denied or delayed by the Israeli Authorities and have missed their appointments. Some have died while waiting for referral. . .

Supplies of drugs and disposables have generally been allowed into Gaza. However, there are often shortages on the ground mainly because of shortfalls in deliveries . . . Delays of up to 2-3 months occur on the importation of certain types of medical equipment, such as x-ray machines and electronic devices. Clinical staff frequently lack the medical equipment they need. Medical devices are often broken, missing spare parts or out of date. . .

– Health professionals in Gaza have been cut off from the outside world. Since 2000, very few doctors, nurses or technicians have been able to leave the Strip for training eg to update their clinical skills or to learn about new medical technology. This is severely undermining their ability to provide quality health care. . . .

GAZA’S ECONOMY IN COLLAPSE

Rising unemployment (41.5 percent of Gaza’s workforce in the first quarter of 2009) and poverty (in May 2008, 70 percent of the families were living on an income of less than one dollar a day per person) is likely to have long term adverse effects on the physical and mental health of the population [the unemployment is a direct result of the Israeli blockade]. . .

OPERATION “CAST LEAD” — IMPACT ON HEALTH FACILITIES AND STAFF [I.e. the Israeli war on Gaza in winter 2009-2010]

– 16 health workers killed and 25 injured on duty

– Damaged health services infrastructure:
+ 15 of 27 Gaza’s hospitals
+ 43 of its 110 Primary Health Care services
+ 29 of its 148 ambulances

– The lack of building materials is affecting essential health facilities: the new surgical wing in Gaza?fs main Shifa hospital has remained unfinished since 2006. Hospitals and primary care facilities, damaged during operation ?Cast Lead?, have not been rebuilt because construction materials are not allowed into Gaza.’

The UN complained that while Israel has a fair record of allowing treatment of Gazans in Israeli hospitals, and that record has improved, some 300-400 requests a month are met with substantial delays or turned down. This issue was foregrounded by a lot of the wire services who picked up the story, but it seems to me not the most important problem. The blockade is the problem.

The Israeli blockade is aimed at weakening Hamas, a fundamentalist party-militia that won power in the Palestine Authority in the elections of January 2006. (Ironically, the Israelis had supported Hamas the late 1980s in hopes of splitting the Palestinians) When the Bush administration and Israel successfully induced the Palestine Liberation Organization of Mahmoud Abbas to make a coup in the West Bank and dislodge the elected Hamas government there, Hamas managed to hang on to power in Gaza, in part because of strong public support. Hamas has committed terrorism against Israeli civilians, and launched small rockets at nearby Israeli towns. It had however made a truce with Israel in 2008, which it observed until Israel broke it, and no Israelis had been killed by Hamas rockets in the lead-up to Israel’s war on the small territory.

Collectively punishing 1.5 million Gazans in order to weaken Hamas is in any case strictly illegal in international law and is a war crime. According to Article 33 of the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949:

‘Article 33. No protected person may be punished for an offense he or she has not personally committed. Collective penalties and likewise all measures of intimidation or of terrorism are prohibited.

Pillage is prohibited.

Reprisals against protected persons and their property are prohibited.’

Not only is today’s ongoing blockade a war crime, but it follows on and continues destructive policies of the Israeli military during the Gaza War, as the Goldstone Report for the United Nations concluded. The Boston Globe reported Goldstone’s defense of his findings at Brandeis University (h/t Mondoweiss.

‘ Goldstone said his central criticism of Israel is that its strategy intentionally applied disproportionate force in Gaza to inflict widespread damage on the civilian population. His report found that the Israeli air and ground attacks destroyed 5,000 homes; put 200 factories out of operation, including the only flour factory in the country; systematically destroyed egg-producing chicken farms; and bombed sewage and water systems. “If that isn’t collective punishment, what is?’’ Goldstone asked.’

Very little of this destruction deliberately visited on civilians has been repaired, in large part because the Israelis won’t allow the materiel in necessary for rebuilding.

Until President Obama does something to end the Gaza siege and its attendant horrors, his Mideast policy will remain an abject failure.

End/ (Not Continued)

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