Cavs’ West pleads guilty to weapons charges
July 16th, 2010
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Cleveland guard pleads guilty to weapons charges and gets home detention sentence -Washington Post.
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"… Obama’s pledge to start withdrawing troops in 2011 is now kaput…?"
June 25th, 2010
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GB flagged this story for us from Andrew Sullivan in the 
Those of us who hoped for some kind of winding down of the longest war in US history will almost certainly be disappointed now. David Petraeus is the real Pope of counter-insurgency and if he decides that he needs more troops and more time and more resources in Afghanistan next year, who is going to be able to gainsay him? That’s Thomas P. Barnett’s shrewd assessment. Obama’s pledge to start withdrawing troops in 2011 is now kaput. It won’t happen. I doubt it will happen in a second term either. Once Washington has decided to occupy a country, it will occupy it for ever. We are still, remember, in Germany! But Afghanistan?
Obama’s gamble on somehow turning the vast expanse of that ungovernable “nation” into a stable polity dedicated to fighting Jihadist terror is now as big as Bush’s in Iraq – and as quixotic.
It is also, in my view, as irrational, a deployment of resources and young lives that America cannot afford and that cannot succeed. It really is Vietnam – along with the crazier and crazier rationales for continuing it. But it is now re-starting in earnest ten years in, dwarfing Vietnam in scope and longevity.
One suspects there is simply no stopping this war machine, just as there is no stopping the entitlement and spending machine. Perhaps McChrystal would have tried to wind things up by next year – but his frustration was clearly fueled by the growing recognition that he could not do so unless he surrendered much of the country to the Taliban again. So now we have the real kool-aid drinker, Petraeus, who will refuse to concede the impossibility of success in Afghanistan just as he still retains the absurd notion that the surge in Iraq somehow worked in reconciling the sectarian divides that still prevent Iraq from having a working government. I find this doubling down in Afghanistan as Iraq itself threatens to spiral out of control the kind of reasoning that only Washington can approve of.
This much we also know: Obama will run for re-election with far more troops in Afghanistan than Bush ever had – and a war and occupation stretching for ever into the future, with no realistic chance of success……..And its deepest irony is that continuing this struggle will actually increase and multiply the terror threats we face – as it becomes once again a recruitment tool for Jihadists the world over. This is a war based on fear, premised on a contradiction, and doomed to carry on against reason and resources for the rest of our lives….”
Netanyahu Invited to Washington? For Next Tuesday
May 26th, 2010
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Ha’aretz is reporting (exclusively, they say) that President Obama has invited Binyamin Netanyahu to come to Washington following his visit to the OECD session in Europe and a previously scheduled visit to Canada. The European visit marks Israel’s joining th4e Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.
Interesting since lately there’s been some pressure in the US for Obama to visit Israel: by inviting Netanyahu he may be emphasizing who’s the superpower and who’s the client.
I’m posting this tonight rather late since, if it’s true, it’ll probably be in the US press by morning.
Categories: Arab News aretz, binyamin netanyahu, Canada, economic cooperation, Europe, Israel, Netanyahu, Obama, President Obama, US, visit, Washington
"Mr. Hariri, why don’t you disarm Hezbollah?……."
May 26th, 2010
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When Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri met with members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday, his main message was not about Syria, Hezbollah, or even Iran. He told the assembled lawmakers that the U.S. had to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict before it could make progress on those other pressing regional issues. “He feels that the growth of terrorism and the instability in his country and elsewhere is still an outgrowth of the inability to find peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and that the lack of progress there continues to jeopardize not only Lebanon but other states as well,” the committee’s ranking Republican Richard Lugar, R-IN, told The Cable upon exiting the meeting. Hariri made a plea for more military assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces, a subject of internal administration debate in Washington, but did not comment on concerns that Syria is transferring new long-range missiles to Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group that Washington has designated a terrorist organization. “He did not accuse the Syrians but he did acknowledge that Hezbollah does have arms,” said Lugar. “When asked ‘Why don’t you disarm them?’ he responded, ‘That would lead to civil war.’” Lawmakers, many of whom have a personal affinity for Hariri and travel to Beirut often, decided not to press the issue. “We did not get into the specific armaments that Syria has given Hezbollah,” Lugar said. “It didn’t happen to arise in this conversation.”…….. lawmakers didn’t ask Hariri to do anything specific to advance that objective, Kerry said. “I think he’s been an enormously helpful partner with respect to the issues in the region.” Not everyone thinks the Lebanese prime minister has been so helpful, especially when he reportedly said last month, “Threats that Lebanon now has huge missiles are similar to what they used to say about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.”… Kerry, who just returned from a trip to Syria, declined to say if he had made any progress with the government there. “I just had discussions about the normal things,” he said.
John Brennan’s Hezbollah proposal is a "thoroughly idiotic scheme"…
May 25th, 2010
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Michael Young, who has no problem in seeing moderation in Samir Geagea’ (a convicted mass murderer) and in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia …. denigrates John Brennan, the British …. for his “Hezbollah moderates” remark, and for their open channels with Hezbollah …… at Young’s favorite pulpit, MEOWLebanon/ here
“…… There is indeed a mulish formalism to the thinking of some Americans that makes you wonder if they are serious. For Brennan the world possibly really is divided into “extremists” and “moderates,” and if an organization or country appears uncompromising, then that must simply be because the moderates haven’t yet been discovered.
But what a self-centered way of looking at politics, since it assesses the actions of others entirely from the perspective of the interpreter. Brennan assumes that Hezbollah’s thinking, rhetoric, conceptual universe and so on, is perfectly comprehensible within American categories, his categories, which is just another way of saying that the party is not as serious about its own ideas as we assume.A few years ago, the British government came out with an equally amusing sleight of hand, when it opened a dialogue with what it referred to as Hezbollah’s political wing, which it differentiated from the party’s military wing. This was rank hypocrisy, of course. The British knew enough about Hezbollah to realize that it is a highly centralized organization, in fact a Leninist organization in many ways, so that all the loose references to “wings” were just excuses to talk to party officials without being accused by the United States of chatting up what Washington officially labels a “terrorist organization.”But Brennan’s proposal doesn’t even have the saving grace of cynicism. When asked how he proposed to reach the moderates, the presidential advisor offered no answer. That’s because his scheme is thoroughly idiotic. One thing about Hezbollah, its militants generally believe what they say, and when they say that Washington is their enemy, they mean that too. The party’s structure and worldview leave no room for “moderates” or “extremists.” What they allow are debates over tactics, but within well-defined strategic parameters, usually set by Iran, of which opposition to America and Israel is essential.That lesson the St. Joseph University students understood instinctively. You might wonder, justifiably, how young people sent to an institution of higher learning where humanistic values are taught could so readily fall for Hezbollah’s catechism of violence and self-sacrifice. But at least they were not on an illusory quest for “moderates.” Their trip was about guns and war and death, and even if it was cool, they knew it was about guns and war and death.
Categories: Arab Blogs America, conceptual universe, hezbollah, Iran, Israel, John Brennan, Michael Young, organization, party, Samir Geagea, Saudi Arabia, United States, Washington
McChrystal: "Marjah (the ‘predictor’ for success at Kandahar) is a ‘Blleding Ulcer’ …."
May 25th, 2010
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Pat Lang said the ‘clock is ticking’ and the Taliban hear it too well! McClatchy’s/ here
“…….. “You’ve got to be patient,” Lt. Col. Brian Christmas told McChrystal. “We’ve only been here 90 days.” “How many days do you think we have before we run out of support by the international community?” McChrystal replied.
“I can’t tell you, sir,” the tall, towheaded, Fort Bragg, N.C., native finally answered.”I’m telling you,” McChrystal said. “We don’t have as many days as we’d like.”
The operation in Marjah is supposed to be the first blow in a decisive campaign to oust the Taliban from their spiritual homeland in adjacent Kandahar province, one that McChrystal had hoped would bring security and stability to Marjah and begin to convey an “irreversible sense of momentum” in the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan.
Instead, a tour last week of Marjah and the nearby Nad Ali district, during which McClatchy had rare access to meetings between McChrystal and top Western strategists, drove home the hard fact that President Barack Obama’s plan to begin pulling American troops out of Afghanistan in July 2011 is colliding with the realities of the war…. “You don’t feel it here,” he said during a 10-hour front-line strategy review, “but I’ll tell you, it’s a bleeding ulcer outside.”……. McChrystal expressed impatience with the pace of operations, echoing the mounting pressure he’s under from his civilian bosses in Washington and Europe to start showing progress.
Progress in Marjah has been slow, however, in part because no one who planned the operation realized how hard it would be to convince residents that they could trust representatives of an Afghan government that had sent them corrupt police and inept leaders before they turned to the Taliban……..
“By day there is government,” he said. “By night it’s the Taliban.” (more/here)
Categories: Arab Blogs Afghanistan, Ali, barack obama, bleeding ulcer, Europe, Fort Bragg, Kandahar, Kandahar Province, Lt. Col. Brian Christmas, Marjah, McChrystal, N.C., taliban, U.S., Washington
"The only way to stop Iran is for the US to shut down Iran’s electric generation for a period …"
May 24th, 2010
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“…. Israel is now in a position to send scores of F-16Is and F-15Is on the 1,000-mile penetration of Iranian airspace to try …..But a U.S. air-war planner in the Persian Gulf War tells The Washington Times he does not think Israel’ has the firepower to properly hit all the necessary Iranian targets.The only real way to stop Iran’s atomic bomb, said retired Air Force Col. John Warden, is for the U.S. to shut down Iran’s electric generation for the foreseeable future — a strategy not currently on the Pentagon’s table…”
Categories: Arab Blogs atomic bomb, Iran, Israel, john warden, persian gulf war, position, the Persian Gulf, Times, U.S., Washington
‘Said’ Hariri in the Israeli media: "Quietly asks UNSC P5 not to vote on Iran sanctions … while Lebanon presides…"
May 22nd, 2010
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Taking cues from WINEP, Haaretz, here & Yediot, here
“… Analysts expect Obama to be more encouraging in tone than demanding of results when he meets Hariri, who heads a national unity government that includes Hezbollah …. Another official said Washington would ask Hariri to continue to support efforts “toward comprehensive regional peace.” Hariri has also denied Israel’s accusations, while his government has said it backs the right of the guerrilla group to keep its weapons to deter Israeli attacks…. Obama and Hariri are also expected to discuss U.S.-led international efforts to isolate Iran … Diplomats said Beirut had quietly asked the permanent members of the Security Council – Britain, France, Russia, China and the United States – not to push for a vote on a new Iran sanctions resolution while it held the presidency. Lebanon is expected to abstain in any vote because Iranian-backed Hezbollah is in its government, diplomats said.
Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Lebanon no longer enjoyed the status it had under the Bush administration …”
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Saturday lashed out at Israel’s defense exercises and said they ran counter to current Middle East peace efforts.
“Israel has to go to the negotiating table in order to achieve peace. To launch military exercises at such a time runs counter to peace efforts, …. How can you launch peace negotiations with the Palestinians while holding military maneuvers?” asked Hariri …”
Categories: Arab Blogs Beirut, Britain, China, France, Government, Hariri, Iran, iran sanctions, Israel, Jon Alterman, lebanese prime minister, Lebanon, Middle East, national unity government, peace, Russia, U.S., United States, Washington
"… the value of sanctions is to slow Tehran down, not change its mind… With more time, the administration can evaluate its other options"
May 22nd, 2010
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“…. Where does this process go from here?
It depends. If Iran moves quickly to begin addressing the technical details needed to implement the fuel swap deal, it may convince China and Russia that diplomatic efforts are finally beginning to bear fruit. They in turn might agree that the threat of sanctions is an important goad to the process, and so keep discussion of a new resolution alive — but not move quickly enough to meet the demands of the U.S. political calendar on this issue.
On the other hand, if Iran delays or begins to raise a series of procedural issues, a new resolution could very well move ahead, as Russia has increasingly indicated that it expects some degree of flexibility from Tehran…..As for China — or India, for that matter — they can both live with the requirements of the current draft, because it would not ban outright investment in Iran’s energy sector. But Beijing’s support might then be conditional on whether pending congressional legislation to impose third-party sanctions on countries investing and doing business in Iran contains the all-important executive waiver authority. That would give President Barack Obama the ability to prevent American sanctions from being imposed against Chinese businesses and financial entities by certifying that China is strictly enforcing existing U.N. sanctions.But the Obama administration could run up against a growing domestic U.S. consensus that both a U.N. resolution and congressional legislation are needed — that having one without the other is insufficient. Given also that Congress wants to eliminate executive waiver authority precisely to ensure that the president cannot gut the intent of the sanctions, the Obama administration may find its diplomatic efforts increasingly complicated.All of this increases the likelihood that we end up with a situation where everyone makes minimal concessions, while no one is fully satisfied: Iran will keep the diplomatic process alive in a sufficient manner to allow China, Russia, Brazil and Turkey to argue that some progress is in fact being made. In turn, these countries may support a new sanctions resolution that is designed to put some degree of pressure on Iran, but which will not be the decisive tightening of the economic noose around Tehran’s neck that Washington was hoping for.It appears that the main emphasis of the draft U.N. resolution would be to target financial transactions if there is reason to suspect they might be aiding Iran’s nuclear or missile programs. However, the draft resolution would also call for efforts to intercept the transport of any material that could be used as part of a nuclear weapons program (including delivery of missile components). This would not cause the Iranian government to cry “uncle” — but it could be used to significantly hamper any rapid progress towards weapons development.
The problem arises once a U.N. resolution passes that fails Congress’ standards for action. Then the congressional Iran sanctions bill will move out of reconciliation, with executive waiver authority either gutted completely or very tightly constrained, bringing the curtain down on this act of the Iran drama.
So, my advice for the Obama administration? Avoid the “either/or” dilemma. Encourage Brazil and Turkey to continue their diplomatic efforts, while framing the proposed deal as an important first step and stressing that “goodwill begets goodwill”: If Iran agrees to the arrangement and does not attempt to sabotage it through procedural delays and administrative trickery, further diplomatic efforts are possible. Signal to the Russians and the Chinese, who have indicated that the draft resolution contains language both Beijing and Moscow can live with, that it is important to keep up the pressure on Tehran, and that the United States is not going to argue for the strictest possible version of sanctions language. And marshal every last bit of political capital needed to convince key members of Congress to prolong the reconciliation process, so that a unilateral third-party sanctions measure doesn’t end up on his desk.Obama needs more time. He cannot allow his self-imposed deadline for “solving” the Iran crisis to become a straightjacket. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment has it right when he says, “In essence, the real value of sanctions is to slow Tehran down, not change its mind.” With more time, the administration can begin to evaluate its other options.
Categories: Arab Blogs american sanctions, Beijing, Brazil, China, congressional legislation, India, Iran, Karim Sadjadpour, Moscow, Obama, process, resolution, Russia, Tehran, Turkey, U.S., United States, waiver authority, Washington
Taliban flex muscle amid US troop surge
May 21st, 2010
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The recent Taliban-claimed attack in Kabul that claimed the life of a Canadian Forces colonel, and which the National Post says marks a “new turn” in the war, was quickly followed by a Taliban attack on nearby Bagram airbase, a major American installment. The pair of attacks has prompted some observers to declare that the Taliban’s Spring offensive has begun.
Mustafa Qadri writes for the Guardian’s site that the Taliban are seen as freedom fighters by many Afghan Pashtuns:
Taliban: the indistinguishable enemyMAY 16 – They may be repressive fanatics who enslave women and give sanctuary to al-Qaida, but the US-led occupation of Afghanistan has transformed the Taliban into Pashtun freedom fighters. There are two principal reasons for this.
First, despite our best attempts, the foreign troops and the state they prop up are viewed as outsiders who have come not to liberate the country but subjugate it.
Second, so long as our presence in Afghanistan is primarily military, our relationship to ordinary Afghans will be based primarily on violence. Armies, by their very nature, must intimidate and coerce the population into accepting their authority. Despite the talk of winning hearts and minds and civilian surges, much of what we do in Afghanistan creates fear and hostility. …
The problem for foreign powers in a foreign land is their limited interest in the welfare of the people whose lands they occupy. There can be no sustainable resolution of the current violence, however, unless and until the locals take the lead in looking for political solutions. (link)
Julian E. Barnes reporting for the Los Angeles Times discusses recent indications that the Taliban-led insurgency is not disappearing in the face of President Obama’s military surge. The surge, which is expected to peak in September, is in fact the fourth troops increase which the Afghanistan war has seen. All of the previous ones have resulted in heightened violence.
Afghan Taliban getting stronger, Pentagon says
A Pentagon assessment, while expressing confidence in U.S. strategy, says the movement has flourished despite repeated assaults.WASHINGTON, April 29 (L.A. Times) – A Pentagon report presented a sobering new assessment Wednesday of the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan, saying that its abilities are expanding and its operations are increasing in sophistication, despite recent major offensives by U.S. forces in the militants’ heartland.
The report, requested by Congress … concludes that Afghan people support or are sympathetic to the insurgency in 92 of 121 districts identified by the U.S. military as key terrain for stabilizing the country. Popular support for Karzai’s government is strong in only 29 of those districts, it concludes. …
A senior Defense official who briefed reporters on the report said violence increased last year in part because of the additional U.S. troops. …
The report also notes that insurgents’ tactics are increasing in sophistication and the militants have also become more able to achieve broader strategic effects with successful attacks. … (link)
And an Associated Press report cites the Red Cross in shedding some light on the extent of insecurity in southern Afghanistan. Note that insurgents are not the only source of insecurity, as personal and tribal rivalries also commonly break out into armed clashes. These rivalries are often fueled by the accoutrements of the US-led war and occupation of Afghanistan.
UN refugee chief: Security worse in Afghanistan, foreign staff can’t access half of countryGENEVA, May 5 (AP) – Security in Afghanistan has deteriorated in recent months to the extent that foreign staff of the U.N.’s refugee agency are unable to travel to half of the country, its top official said Wednesday.
The agency has to rely on local staff or Afghan partner organizations to reach tens of thousands of displaced people and returning refugees it is trying to aid, said U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres.
“There was a worsening security situation in the recent past,” he told reporters in Geneva. “Access of our international staff to the territory is now limited to about 50 percent.”
Last month the United Nations announced it had relocated several foreign employees from the southern city of Kandahar to Kabul and told more than 200 Afghan workers to stay home after security threats.
Guterres said aid workers have become targets for violence in part because the distinction between the foreign military and humanitarian groups has been blurred. … (link)
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